I don't want to jump the gun on this new XDR-TB outbreak in KZN. The current news is maybe just the way the media reacts to news that is suddenly "hot" and "newsworthy", but have been known to people in the field for over a year. I mean, we have only had 53 confirmed cases over the past 12 months, maybe a bit more in recent weeks. However, 52 of the 53 people have died within 1 month of being diagnosed. The WHO and CDC are worried - and so should we. If one looks a bit deeper at the issue, one sees that its highly effective against AIDS patients and HIV+ people with CD4 counts close to but above 200. Though we don't know how effective person-to-person transmission is for XDR-TB, it will not be too presumptions to assume it spreads as easily as normal TB. My best case scenario is that it afffects only 20% of AIDS sufferers, with a 50% fatality rate (highly optimistic). My worse case scenario, it affects all AIDS sufferers with a 80% fatality rate, all HIV+ people with an average 50% fatality rate, and 25% of non-HIV+ people with a 20% fatality rate. The list of possibilities is endless. People with more facts about this, please inform me. Lets get the discussion started.
The SA govt and other international agencies are rushing research on this - quick action research mostly medical so as to avert a outbreak. However, I feel we definitely need to do research on the potential economic impact it will have on SA and the rest of Southern Africa. I am not a health economist, and have only read a few impact assessments of HIV & AIDS on Southern Africa. My question is: what is the expected impact on the SA, KZN and various local economies of this XDR-TB threat? How will this affect tourism to SA? Some compare it to SARS crisis of East Asia or bird flu, but I expect it may be bigger than both combined. How will it affect the SA health care system, both public & private? How will it impact on socio-economic situation of households and communities affected? How will it impact on social grants, on household structures, on productivity, on markets and industries e.g. health insurers & tourism dependent companies(travel agencies, airlines, accommodation,etc), hospital and healthcare industry, on foreign investment, mental health of the survivors, etc? How will it impact on South Africa's ability to host the 2010 World Cup? the list of potential impacts are endless.
It is necessary to alert our economic policy decision makers to these potential social and economic risks and our need to actively and pre-emptively manage these risks - both reducing the potential impact it will have, as well as increasing our ability to cope when it occurs. We have numerous HIV & AIDS research experience in this country to assist us to do this kind of impact assessments.
I do not want to be seen as a doomsdayer, but we need must not wake up 2/3 years from now and suddenly be confronted by this enormous crisis that will set us back 20 years and keep us down for another 10 years. SA have "slept" too many times when crises have loomed on the horizon, only to wake up and realise it has not disappeared but have ballooned out of control. There are people in SA that is more familiar than me about the potential impact and our ability to manage it effectively. Please think about it and lets get the debate / discussions started. It is something of public interest and not something to be held behind closed doors. We may be unable to avoid it, but we certainly can influence how we manage it and possibly reduce its impact on our economy.
Spread the word and lets start the action that we need.
The SA govt and other international agencies are rushing research on this - quick action research mostly medical so as to avert a outbreak. However, I feel we definitely need to do research on the potential economic impact it will have on SA and the rest of Southern Africa. I am not a health economist, and have only read a few impact assessments of HIV & AIDS on Southern Africa. My question is: what is the expected impact on the SA, KZN and various local economies of this XDR-TB threat? How will this affect tourism to SA? Some compare it to SARS crisis of East Asia or bird flu, but I expect it may be bigger than both combined. How will it affect the SA health care system, both public & private? How will it impact on socio-economic situation of households and communities affected? How will it impact on social grants, on household structures, on productivity, on markets and industries e.g. health insurers & tourism dependent companies(travel agencies, airlines, accommodation,etc), hospital and healthcare industry, on foreign investment, mental health of the survivors, etc? How will it impact on South Africa's ability to host the 2010 World Cup? the list of potential impacts are endless.
It is necessary to alert our economic policy decision makers to these potential social and economic risks and our need to actively and pre-emptively manage these risks - both reducing the potential impact it will have, as well as increasing our ability to cope when it occurs. We have numerous HIV & AIDS research experience in this country to assist us to do this kind of impact assessments.
I do not want to be seen as a doomsdayer, but we need must not wake up 2/3 years from now and suddenly be confronted by this enormous crisis that will set us back 20 years and keep us down for another 10 years. SA have "slept" too many times when crises have loomed on the horizon, only to wake up and realise it has not disappeared but have ballooned out of control. There are people in SA that is more familiar than me about the potential impact and our ability to manage it effectively. Please think about it and lets get the debate / discussions started. It is something of public interest and not something to be held behind closed doors. We may be unable to avoid it, but we certainly can influence how we manage it and possibly reduce its impact on our economy.
Spread the word and lets start the action that we need.
